Gabriel Mihalache
International Economics

My name is Gabriel, I study topics in International Macroeconomics. My work explores the consequences of sovereign default risk for the maturity structure of public debt, sectoral reallocation, capital accumulation, and fiscal-monetary interactions. I am an Assistant Professor of Economics at Stony Brook University, since 2018. I received my PhD in 2016, from the University of Rochester. I am Romanian and this is how you pronounce my last name.

• Working Papers
• Publications
• Resources
• Teaching
• Door Decoration

News: Cristina, Yan, and I completed an extensive update of "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets." We study how mitigations efforts interact with tight fiscal space. The model replicates key features of Latin American data from 2020. About one third of deaths are attributable to default risk. Voluntary restructuring or official lending are immensely helpful, as debt overhang weighs heavility on investment in life-saving mitigation measures.

Working Papers

• "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets," Apr 2021
  PDF VMACS Bib
  
  with Cristina Arellano and Yan Bai, submitted
  Media and General Audience: GlobalCapital, FRB Minneapolis, Stony Brook Magazine, U of Rochester

  Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets

  ×

  @unpublished{ARELLANO2020bwp,
  author = "Cristina Arellano and Yan Bai and Gabriel Mihalache", 
  title = "Deadly Debt Crises: COVID-19 in Emerging Markets",
  note = "NBER Working Paper No. 27275",
  month = "5",
  year = "2020", }

  Close
• "Non Linear Dividend Taxation and Shareholder Disagreement," Feb 2021
  PDF Bib
  
  with Alexis Anagnostopoulos and Eva Cárceles-Poveda, initial draft

  Non Linear Dividend Taxation and Shareholder Disagreement

  ×

  @unpublished{ACM2021wp,
  author = "Alexis Anagnostopoulos and Eva Cárceles-Poveda and Gabriel Mihalache", 
  title = "Non Linear Dividend Taxation and Shareholder Disagreement",
  note = "Working Paper",
  month = "2",
  year = "2021", }

  Close
• "Bargaining over Taxes and Entitlements," Dec 2020
  PDF Bib
  
  with Marina Azzimonti and Laura Karpuska, revise & resubmit International Economic Review

  Bargaining over Taxes and Entitlements

  ×

  @unpublished{AZZIMONTI2020wp,
  author = "Marina Azzimonti and Laura Karpuska and Gabriel Mihalache", 
  title = "Bargaining over Taxes and Entitlements",
  note = "NBER Working Paper No. 27595",
  month = "12",
  year = "2020", 
  doi = "10.3386/w27595", }

  Close
• "Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)," Jan 2020
  PDF Bib
  
  with Cristina Arellano and Yan Bai, revising
  Media and General Audience: FRB Minneapolis

  Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies

  ×

  @unpublished{ARELLANO2020wp,
  author = "Cristina Arellano and Yan Bai and Gabriel Mihalache", 
  title = "Monetary Policy and Sovereign Risk in Emerging Economies (NK-Default)",
  note = "NBER Working Paper No. 26671",
  month = "1",
  year = "2020", }

  Close
• "The Maturity and Payment Schedule of Sovereign Debt," Jun 2016
  PDF Bib
  
  with Yan Bai and Seon Tae Kim

  The Maturity and Payment Schedule of Sovereign Debt

  ×

  @unpublished{BAI2016wp,
  author = "Yan Bai and Seon Tae Kim and Gabriel Mihalache", 
  title = "The Maturity and Payment Schedule of Sovereign Debt",
  note = "NBER Working Paper No. 20896",
  month = "6",
  year = "2016", }

  Close
• "Sustainable Debt with Long Run Risk," Feb 2021, in progress
  

  I propose a parsimonious framework for the quantitative evaluation of sustainable debt in emerging markets, by embedding rich fiscal rules and a pricing kernel consistent with key stylized facts, as in Bansal and Yaron (JF, 2004), in the slow-moving debt crisis model of Lorenzoni and Werning (AER, 2019). The model can replicate the importance of a common global factor in spreads, the role of time-varying volatility, and the slow response of primary deficits to debt overhang. The framework supports the design of robust fiscal rules.

Publications

• "Sovereign Default Resolution Through Maturity Extension,"
  PDF DOI Code Bib
  
  Journal of International Economics, Volume 125C, 2020, ISSN 0022-1996

  Sovereign Default Resolution Through Maturity Extension (JIE, 2020)

  ×

  @article{MIHALACHE2020103326,
  title = "Sovereign default resolution through maturity extension",
  journal = "Journal of International Economics",
  volume = "125C",
  pages = "103326",
  year = "2020",
  issn = "0022-1996",
  doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103326",
  url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199620300453",
  author = "Gabriel Mihalache", }

  Close
• "Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions,"
  PDF DOI Bib
  
  with Cristina Arellano and Yan Bai
  Journal of International Economics, Volume 112, 2018, ISSN 0022-1996

  Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions (JIE, 2018)

  ×

  @article{ARELLANO2018182,
  title = "Default risk, sectoral reallocation, and persistent recessions",
  journal = "Journal of International Economics",
  volume = "112",
  pages = "182 - 199",
  year = "2018",
  issn = "0022-1996",
  doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2018.01.004",
  url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199618300047",
  author = "Cristina Arellano and Yan Bai and Gabriel Mihalache", }

  Close
• "The Payment Schedule of Sovereign Debt,"
  PDF DOI Bib
  
  with Yan Bai and Seon Tae Kim
  Economics Letters, Volume 161, 2017, ISSN 0165-1765

  The Payment Schedule of Sovereign Debt (EL, 2017)

  ×

  @article{BAI201719,
  title = "The payment schedule of sovereign debt",
  journal = "Economics Letters",
  volume = "161",
  pages = "19 - 23",
  year = "2017",
  issn = "0165-1765",
  doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2017.09.003",
  url = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176517303701",
  author = "Yan Bai and Seon Tae Kim and Gabriel Mihalache", }

  Close

Resources

• Computation: Compilers, IDEs, languages, libraries for numerical methods
• Sovereign default reading list: key papers on quantitative models of (equilibrium) sovereign default
• A Fortran+MATLAB Workflow, for moving data or results back and forth

Teaching

All materials, including syllabi and recordings, are distributed via Blackboard. Class-specific office hours are listed in the syllabus. For other appointments, please email. Students, please use gabriel.mihalache@stonybrook.edu and include the class name in the subject. Thank you!

Fall 2021

• On Leave

Previously

• ECO 305 Intermediate Macroeconomic Theory
• ECO 325 International Economics (pre-2020)
• ECO 325 International Trade
• ECO 386 International Finance
• ECO 531 Introduction to Computational Methods in Economics (MA)
• ECO 610 Advanced Macroeconomic Theory (PhD)
• ECO 613 Computational Macroeconomics (PhD)

Are you considering asking me to write a reference letter in support fo your grad school applications? Please read carefully the information available here, to help me help you. Thank you!

Door Decorations

It is traditional for academics to decorate their office doors with snippets from articles, media, social commentary, quotes, or cartoons. These are the current content on my door, as of June 2021:

• "Japan's Phillips Curve Looks Like Japan" – G.W. Smith, 2006
• "The End of Four Big Inflations" – T.J. Sargent, 1981
• "University of California at Berkley graduation speech" – T.J. Sargent, 2007
• "Brazil: Inflation and stabilization plans" – Ayres et al., 2019